March 29, 2023
Roundtable for diplomats
“Is Economic Chaos our New Reality? Reflections on growth and hope in an unsettled world” with Mr. Peter Hall, CEO – econosphere, inc.
Is economic chaos our new reality? Gloom has descended over the global economy as inflation and sharply higher interest rates weigh on growth. Recession seems to be the 2023 watchword, with the only squabbles being around how deep and how long this one is going to be.
More recently, economic data have sharp-eyed analysts revising forecasts upward. What are we to think about an increasingly chaotic environment?
Peter Hall shares his high-level thoughts on the world economic and geopolitical situation and provides his views on the issues that are of greatest concern now and in the near-term future. Expect these views to challenge the consensus and to emphasize the particular importance of our role in facilitating solid international relations and trade activity.
Hello, I’m Peter Hall, CEO of econosphere inc., and former Chief Economist at Export Development Canada. I was honoured to be the keynote speaker at the Christian Embassy’s Annual Christmas dinner late last fall. And we had a wonderful time together talking about the world economy, the geopolitical situation, the absence of the themes of growth and hope in the public discourse and how faith intersects with these key topics. There were great questions following the presentation, but sadly time did not permit us to deal with all of them.
I’m delighted that the Christian Embassy has arranged for a follow-up session exclusively for heads of mission here in Ottawa. I’ll be back in Ottawa on March 29 to continue the conversation, which, after my brief summary presentation, will mostly be in the form of Q&A.
So come ready to discuss the economic and geopolitical issues that are on your mind, keeping you up at night and/or proving to be a challenge to executing on your mandate. Whether you were at the Christmas dinner or not, you are very welcome to attend. Please see the Christian Embassy website to RSVP and for details. I hope to see you there!
Previous Peter Hall event:
0:00 Introductory remarks
1:31 Uncertainty in world economy and geopolitical situation
1:58 Context: pre 2008 and primary mechanisms that opened up trust in international trade
2:59 2008 financial and economic crisis: turning from globalization to neo-protectionism
4:19 What do we do about this?
5:29 Where does this leave us now?
6:15 How did globalization affect global growth?
7:46 “A new normal”
9:04 What is going to ensure mutual prosperity as we go forward?
9:36 How do we forecast forward when everything is so chaotic?
10:42 Covid-19 recovery: higher interest and inflation
12:16 Economic and geopolitical forecasting requires faith
14:06 How do you see the current budget of Canada in relation to your prediction?
20:39 The joint statement between Prime Minister Trudeau and President Biden in which you see several ties between the two economies, you also see more integration between the two economies and last year we heard a lot about “friend shoring.” Do you think this is a new kind of cooperation? How do you see the new forces of “friend shoring” leading to a new mobilization of economic forces world wide?
27:15 Regarding the closure of banks and the potential financial crises that we are confronting and considering the rising interest rates, is this a full financial crisis or only a moment?
33:35 What do you think has to be done in terms of strengthening the initial institutions in charge of global economic governance such as the IMF, G7 G20 and others, to make sure those individual domestic initiatives are better coordinated?
38:43 In his speech, President Biden said that Canada and America share values and that he sees a future where the US and Canada would lead, where the US and Allies will be tied to new technologies and that the investment in America will reshape the world. What do you think about bringing jobs back to America and can it cause outsourcing problems politically? How will trade and economics change as technologies are brought back to America?
46:27 Concluding remarks and challenges we face as we look forward
Peter Hall is CEO of econosphere inc., a boutique business strategy advisory firm. In this capacity he is involved in advising leading Canadian industry associations and corporations, advising and promoting international initiatives and conducting ad hoc project work. Mr. Hall is a special advisor to both Martinrea International and Elevate Export Finance, writes a weekly column in the Financial Post and is a featured speaker at conferences across Canada.
Until recently he was chief economist at Export Development Canada, heading up a large team of economists and country risk analysts that provided comprehensive forecasting for internal and external business strategy purposes, transaction risk analysis for over 160 countries, model creation, use and maintenance and data systems support. In addition to advising EDC’s executive team and board of directors, Mr. Hall personally conducted dozens of presentations annually to a wide variety of business, government and academic audiences and was continuously sought as a conference speaker at industry events in Canada, the United States and internationally.
Mr. Hall regularly speaks at conferences and corporate events and comments on the global and Canadian economies in print media, radio and television. While at EDC, he authored the widely-circulated Weekly Commentary. Prior to his work at EDC, Mr. Hall directed the economic forecasting activities of the Conference Board of Canada. He has served as the president of the Canadian Association for Business Economics, a 600+ member organization of professional economists and also its largest local chapter, the Ottawa Economics Association. He has served on the board and as an advisor to multiple Ottawa-area charities.
Mr. Hall has degrees in Economics from the University of Toronto and Carleton University.
The opinions expressed by the speakers and commentators at our events and posted on our website are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Christian Embassy.